dal sole24ore
 
 
Avete ragione tutti e due. Così una vecchia pubblicità decideva salomonicamente fra una coppia di litiganti. Ben Bernanke, presidente della Federal Reserve, e Jean-Claude Trichet della Banca centrale europea non litigano ma mai come ora appaiono su rotte divergenti.
Al centro del dibattito è la reazione della politica monetaria alla frenata dell'economia e alla crisi dei mercati. Già due settimane fa, le posizioni erano apparse distanti, quando Bernanke aveva annunciato di voler tagliare i tassi interest in an aggressive and Trichet had barely contain the inclination of the board of the ECB to raise them. But now, Bernanke has gone from words to action, cutting with a recent unprecedented and seems ready to repeat itself here in a week, at the next regular meeting of the Fed, while Trichet reiterated that the priority & # 224; remains the control of inflation, and this is now at 3.1%, largely beyond the 2% that the ECB has been chosen as the roof.
The most sensational of the two attitudes is of course that the U.S. central banker, while his colleague was European limited to reiterate a known position, albeit in circumstances have significantly changed compared to just two weeks ago. And it was then that Bernanke's move has raised the most comments, criticisms and even more vivid. The former king of the hedge fund George Soros has welcomed the cut of the Fed implicitly pointing out that the crisis "is the worst in the last sixty years," as the guru of Pimco, the giant fixed income , El-Erian Moahamed noted that if anything, the Fed late.
But what's behind the sudden decision, since it lacked the usual just now meeting the Monetary Policy Committee and that the economy still real effects of interest rate cuts will be felt only with the usual delay of at least a year? Some people accused Bernanke of having been "captured" by Wall Street and big business, given that many large banks need oxygen rates to stay afloat in a situation where the true size of their loss remains uncertain. And there are those who think the Fed knows something (some huge skeleton in the closet in some of the major financial institutions) that the markets still do not know.
It is likely however that Bernanke and his colleagues have seen the panic that was spreading in the financial markets, having now reached even the stock after that of credit derivatives and interbank, and acted accordingly. It is the duty of a central bank to take on the markets, they will keep the purists, but in extreme situations can also be a serious mistake not to intervene, as can attest to the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, after the Northern Rock case. And if the economy does not appear as the first thought of Governors of the Fed, it is also true that a financial system paralyzed can not be helpful at the exit of the recession. More
linear thinking of Trichet, although in turn can be interpreted as very less dogmatic than it appears at first glance. Meanwhile, in Q & A following his speech, the ECB President said that the slowdown "may have an effect on inflation." In addition, it was the ECB's own figures to highlight this week that financial conditions in the euro area have already suffered a restriction.
So we must listen to the statements of members of the ECB as a whole, although sometimes cacophonous. Several of them, including a hawk as president of the Bundesbank, Axel Weber, have pointed in recent days that the current peak of inflation is likely to turn to end of the year at levels closer to the objective of the ECB. Finally, a little 'history is not bad: in 2001, when the slowdown hit American Euroland, the ECB lowered rates at the end but at a time when inflation seemed to diverge from.
In short, both Bernanke and Trichet may have good reasons for doing what they do. That both are right? We can only hope that is not true.
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